Monday 6 April 2020

The End Is Nigh.

       Everybody is, rightly so, concentrating on getting through this nightmare pandemic, but we should also be focusing on what about after this? The political ballerinas and their experts keep talking about getting back to "normal", well I think you can forget the return to normal, as it will just not be there. There will be massive unemployment as business after business is, and will continue, to go down the plug hole. Not that I for one ever wanted to return to their normal of struggle to survive, while we keep the parasite class in luxury.
    The pandemic is being the seed sower of mutual aid, we have seen it grow in community after community, and should become our plan for a return to our created "normal", freed from the destructive profit motive that has blight humanity for centuries. As far as capitalism is concerned, let's all unite and say "The end is nigh"
   Some recent figures from America can give some insight on what to expect economically, after we get through this pandemic. Remember in this crazy economic system we are tied to the rise and fall of the mighty dollar.


1– Unemployment is off-the-charts
       Thursday’s jobless claims leave no doubt that the country is in the grips of another severe recession. More than 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance in the last week. That number exceeds the gloomiest prediction of more than 40 economists and pushes the two-week total to an eye-watering 10 million claims.
According to CNBC:
       “Those at the lower end of the wage scale have been especially hard-hit during a crisis that has seen businesses either cut staff outright or at best freeze any new hiring until there’s more visibility about how efforts to contain the coronavirus will work.
      “We’ve lived through the recession and 9/11. What we’re seeing with this decline is actually worse than both of those events,” said Irina Novoselsky, CEO of online jobs marketplace CareerBuilder.” (CNBC)
According to New York Magazine:
      “Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis projected Monday that job losses from the coronavirus recession would reach 47 million and push America’s unemployment rate to 32.1 percent — more than 7 points higher than its Great Depression–era peak.”
2– Service Sector has been walloped by the virus
      Services account for 70% of the US economy, but presently the sector is in meltdown. According to the analysts at Wolf Street: “Employment contracted sharply and hours were reduced for those still employed. “The employment index plunged from +6.1 to -23.8, also the lowest level on record…
       Retailers got whacked. The Retail Sales Index of the Texas Retail Outlook Survey collapsed from the already beaten-down level of -2.5 in February to an epic all-time low of -82.6 in March… (Also) the general business activity index collapsed from the beaten down level of -5.0 to a historic low of -84.2….
        Comments from retail executives were somber:… “Most of our business has gone to zero except for essential locations such as hospitals, military bases and prisons… We are contemplating at this moment sending most employees home while our owners determine whether they can afford to pay reduced salaries and cover benefits for a short period while we see if things improve or worsen” (Wolf Street)
3– Economic carnage extends across sectors
      Business Insider: “Recession risks are rising as coronavirus spreads around the world…The crisis will clobber airlines, shipping, hotels, and restaurants…
     “Sectors reliant on trade and the free movement of people are most exposed,” said Benjamin Nelson, a Moody’s vice president and co-author of the report.
Carmakers, gaming, and retail will be hit hard by supply chain disruptions, the analysts said…
     “A lengthy outbreak would affect economic activity for longer, leading to heightened recessionary dynamics and a more significant demand shock,” Moody’s said. “A sustained pullback in consumption would hurt corporate earnings, prompt layoffs, and weigh on consumer sentiment.” (Business Insider)
      Car sales have also dropped dramatically in the last two weeks. On Wednesday, Hyundai reported that sales had seen a decline of 43 percent for March compared to the same period in 2019. That’s a drop from 61,177 vehicles in March 2019 to just 35,118 during the same month in 2020. All other car manufacturers are experiencing similar weakness in demand.
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